Forecasting Wholesale Rice Prices in Indonesia Using an ARIMAX Model with ENSO and Hydrometeorological Disaster Variables
Keywords:
ARIMAX, ENSO, Hydrometeorological Disasters, MAPE, Rice Price ForecastingAbstract
Rice is the main staple food in Indonesia, making its price stability a critical component of national food security. However, rice prices often fluctuate due to various factors, including climate variability and hydrometeorological disasters. One of the global climate drivers affecting agricultural conditions is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences rainfall patterns and crop productivity. In addition, disasters such as floods and droughts can disrupt production and distribution, thereby affecting wholesale rice prices. This study aims to forecast wholesale rice prices in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) model by incorporating ENSO indicators and hydrometeorological disaster variables. Monthly data from January 2015 to February 2026 were analyzed through stationarity testing, model identification, and parameter estimation, followed by model evaluation using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the best model is ARIMAX(1,1,0), which produces a MAPE value of 3.42%, indicating highly accurate forecasting performance. Despite this high accuracy, the influence of ENSO and disaster variables is relatively weak and occurs with a time lag, suggesting that rice prices are more strongly driven by internal market dynamics. These findings highlight that while climate and disaster factors contribute to price variations, their impact is limited in the short term.
References
M. Zaril Gapari, “Pengaruh Kenaikan Harga Beras Terhadap Kesejahteraan Petani Di Desa Sukaraja,” 2021. [Online]. Available: https://ejournal.stitpn.ac.id/index.php/pensa
I. M. Fahmid, M. Fahmid, A. Gemilang Badrani, and M. Magister, “The Impact of Indonesian Rice Policy: Production, Price, Import and Farmer’s Welfare (2004-2024),” JURNAL SOSIAL EKONOMI PERTANIAN, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 65–87, Oct. 2025, [Online]. Available: https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jsep
N. Malay and Y. Situmorang, “Analisis Dampak ENSO Terhadap Variabilitas Curah Hujan di Daerah Irigasi Manganti Informasi Artikel,” in PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL POLITEKNIK PEMBANGUNAN PERTANIAN BOGOR, 2025, pp. 415–420. [Online]. Available: https://jurnal.polbangtan-bogor.ac.id/
F. Aditya, E. Gusmayanti, and J. Sudrajat, “Pengaruh Perubahan Curah Hujan terhadap Produktivitas Padi Sawah di Kalimantan Barat,” JURNAL ILMU LINGKUNGAN, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 237–246, 2021.
D. T. Tresnanti, A. Kurniadi, D. A. Puspito, P. Widodo, and K. Kusuma, “Komunikasi Bencana Sebagai Sistem Mitigasi Bencana Hidrometeorologi Akibat Perubahan Iklim di Jakarta,” PENDIPA Journal of Science Education, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 155–163, Jun. 2024, doi: 10.33369/pendipa.8.2.155-163.
N. Amri Komarudin, C. Anam Afgan, and G. Nova Ardiantoro, “Pengetahuan dan Persepsi Rumah Tangga Tani di Perdesaan Terhadap Dampak Perubahan Iklim Pada Sektor Pertanian,” Jurnal Ilmu Alam dan Lingkungan, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 24–32, 2024, [Online]. Available: https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jai2
D. Ratnawaty Hakim, A. Rahmiwati, and R. Flora, “Menjelajahi Dinamika Pangan di Era Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Dampak di Indonesia dan Proyeksi Masa Depan: A Systematic Review,” Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 1703–720, 2025, doi: 10.38035/rrj.v7i3.
M. Fatchul Annaji, M. Pratama, I. P. A. Weny, and P. D. A. Ohaq Lelangrian, “Analisis Kebijakan Terhadap Harga Beras Dalam Konteks Negara Vs Pasar Pada Ekonomi Politik,” Journal of Society Bridge, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 1–9, Jan. 2025, doi: 10.59012/jsb.v3i1.60.
F. Putri Naya, S. Sarah Berlianti, N. Parcha, and A. Kayla, “Peramalan Harga Beras Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Arima,” INTELEKTIVA, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 184–93, Aug. 2024, [Online]. Available: https://www.jurnalintelektiva.com/index.php/jurnal/article/view/1063
M. Ariska, H. Akhsan, M. Muslim, M. Romadoni, and F. S. Putriyani, “Prediksi Perubahan Iklim Ekstrem di Kota Palembang dan Kaitannya dengan Fenomena El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Berbasis Machine Learning,” JIPFRI (Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Fisika dan Riset Ilmiah), vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 79–86, Nov. 2022, doi: 10.30599/jipfri.v6i2.1611.
I. N. Zulfa, A. Wirasatriya, and A. Ismanto, “Pengaruh ENSO Terhadap Variabilitas Curah Hujan Dan Klorofil-A di Perairan Samarinda,” Jurnal Kelautan Tropis, vol. 28, no. 2, pp. 277–287, Jun. 2025, doi: 10.14710/jkt.v28i2.22547.
A. M. D. Asyam, B. Rochaddi, and R. Widiaratih, “Hubungan ENSO dan IOD terhadap Suhu Permukaan laut dan Curah Hujan Di Selatan Jawa Tengah,” Indonesian Journal of Oceanography, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 165–172, May 2024, doi: 10.14710/ijoce.v6i2.17274.
S. Y. Rahayu, A. Sari, and R. Utari, “Variasi Nilai Equivalent Water Height Di Indonesia dan Kaitannya dengan Bencana Hidrometeorologi (Banjir dan Kekeringan),” Journal of Geodesy and Geomatics, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 65–74, 2025, doi: 10.23960/datum.v5i1.6821.
A. G. Siregar, “Mitigasi Meningkatkan Kesadaran Risiko dan Penanggulangan Bencana Hidrometeorologi,” Jurnal Riksa Cendikia Nusantara 2025, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 1–7, 2025, [Online]. Available: https://ejournal.lembagarisetmandirinusantara.or.id/index.php/jrcn/article/view/31
N. Salsabila and A. Oktaviarina, “PERAMALAN PDRB DI JAWA TIMUR MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARIMAX DENGAN VARIABELL EKSOGEN EKSPOR-IMPOR,” Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 208–218, 2024, doi: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n1.p208-218.
R. H. Silvia and Anneke Iswani Achmad, “Penerapan Metode ARIMAX dengan Efek Variasi Kalender pada Peramalan Harga Komoditas Cabai Rawit di Provinsi Jawa Barat,” Bandung Conference Series: Statistics, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 689–698, Aug. 2023, doi: 10.29313/bcss.v3i2.9180.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Nadya Ilma Pratiwi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
