Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Measles Cases in DKI Jakarta, Indonesia, 2016 to 2025

Abstract

Measles remains a significant public health threat in densely populated urban settings like DKI Jakarta, Indonesia, where sustaining herd immunity is challenging. To optimize public health responses, the main objective of the research is to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of measles over a ten-year period from January 2016 to December 2025 using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA). Epidemiological data were obtained from the Jakarta Provincial Health Office, aggregating case reports exclusively from hospitals across the province. The analysis involved calculating incidence rates and applying spatial clustering techniques to detect localized transmission hotspots. Results indicate a total of 6,951 cases, revealing a cyclical three-year outbreak pattern with significant peaks in 2017, 2023, and an unprecedented surge in 2025 totaling 4,616 cases. Spatial analysis identified persistent high-risk transmission hotspots in North Jakarta, specifically Koja and Cilincing, alongside a newly emerging hotspot in Kalideres, West Jakarta. Furthermore, children under five years old experienced the highest incidence rates, particularly within these specific hotspot districts. The conclusion emphasizes that prioritizing localized interventions and targeted vaccination strategies in these defined geographic clusters and vulnerable age demographics is essential to control transmission and mitigate future outbreaks.