The Effect of Socioeconomic Indicators on Environmental Quality in Indonesia Using Logistic Regression

Abstract

Environmental degradation in Indonesia is becoming increasingly evident as development activities and the exploitation of natural resources intensify. Deforestation resulting from the expansion of plantations, mining, and industrial development leads to the loss of forest cover as well as a decline in air quality and biodiversity. These conditions indicate that rapid economic growth often places significant pressure on environmental sustainability if not balanced by sustainable management. This study aims to analyze the relationship between socioeconomic factors and the risk of environmental degradation in Indonesia in 2024. The study employs a logistic regression model using secondary data from 38 provinces sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (KLHK). Independent variables include per capita GRDP, poverty rate, Human Development Index, and population density, while the dependent variable is environmental quality measured through the Environmental Quality Index classified based on the national median. The analysis results indicate that the model is statistically significant simultaneously and can moderately explain variations in environmental quality. Partially, the poverty rate variable shows a significant negative effect on environmental quality at the 10% significance level. Meanwhile, the per capita GRDP, Human Development Index, and population density variables do not show a significant effect. These findings indicate that the risk of environmental quality decline is not solely determined by the level of prosperity but is influenced by structural dynamics and inter-regional development pressures.